The Meaning of Broadband University of Minnesota宽带明尼苏达大学的意义.pptVIP

* * * Measurements120502-* Andrew Odlyzko Measurements and Mismeasurements and the Dynamics of Data Traffic Growth odlyzko@ /~odlyzko Technology successfully met the challenge posed by unrealistic business plans that were formulated in willful disregard of real demand Huge excess of long haul fiber (from now on should be thought as a free resource) Lesser excesses in optical and routing markets, combined with technological obsolescence, mean less severe problems. Cause of telecom crash long distance fiber deployment: fiber miles growth of 5x transmission capacity: DWDM advances of 100x? cumulative fiber capacity growth of around 500x actual demand growth: around 4x Two fundamental mistakes: (i) assume astronomical rate of growth for Internet traffic (ii) extrapolate that rate to the entire network From year-end 1997 to year-end 2001 (U.S. only) 100% Internet 10% 40% Private line, ATM, FR 45% 10% Voice 45% Growth Rate Percent of total Bandwidth Source: Coffman and Odlyzko, “The Size and Growth Rate of the Internet”, 1998 Bandwidth and Growth Rate of U.S. Long Distance Networks, year-end 1997 Internet growth hype: “… bandwidth … will be chronically scarce. Capacity actually creates demand in this business…bandwidth-centric names are good values at any price since nobody can predict the true demand caused by growth.” -- Jack Grubman, April 1988 “Over the past five years, Internet usage has doubled every three months.” -- Kevin Boyne, UUNET COO, September 2000 “If you are not scared, you do not understand” -- Mike O’Dell, UUNET Chief Scientist, May 2000 Blatant implausibilities in Internet bubble stories Mike O’Dell, May 2000 /optic/main.html Audio presentations: claimed consistent 10x annual growth Slides: domestic UUNET network: growth only 7x mid – 1997 5,281 OC12-miles mid – 1998 38,485 “ mid – 1999 268,794 “ Extrapolating back using 10x annual growth: 5 OC12-miles ? 2