Variation among Batches of Freshly ground chicken 新磨鸡批次间的变异.pptVIP

Variation among Batches of Freshly Ground Chicken Breast Meat Complicates the Modeling of Salmonella Growth Kinetics Thomas P. Oscar USDA, ARS Microbial Food Safety Research Unit University of Maryland Eastern Shore Princess Anne, MD Introduction Pure culture Co-culture Test pathogen Competitor Introduction Marker pathogen Fluorescent (e.g. gfp) Luminescent Introduction Multiple Antibiotic Resistant (MAR) Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 Objective To determine the feasibility of using an MAR strain to model growth in naturally contaminated food Materials and Methods Organism Salmonella Typhimurium DT 104 Food Ground chicken breast meat Inoculum BHI broth at 30oC for 23 h Materials and Methods Initial Density 103.8 CFU/g Temperatures 10 to 40oC 5 replicates Viable Counts Selective media with 4 antibiotics XLH-CATS Secondary Models Primary Model Primary Model C Model mmax Model l Model No Model Observed No Predicted No Observed l Predicted l Observed mmax Predicted mmax Observed C Predicted C Predicted N(t) Observed N(t) Tertiary Model Predicted N(t) Materials and MethodsPredictive Modeling Materials and MethodsAcceptable Prediction Zone (APZ) Method Performance Factor %RE = REIN/RETOTAL Results and DiscussionAPZ Analysis: Tertiary Modeling (Verification) %RE = 50.7 (271/534) Results and DiscussionPrimary Modeling (Example) Modified Gompertz N(t) = No + C.[exp(-exp((2.718.mmax/C).(l-t)+1))] Results and DiscussionAPZ Analysis: Primary Modeling (Goodness-of-fit) %RE = 83.0 (433/534) Results and DiscussionSecondary Modeling for No Quadratic Polynomial No = 4.023 + 0.024T + 0.0003T2 Results and DiscussionAPZ Analysis: Secondary Model for No (Goodness-of-fit) %REReplicates = 84.4 (38/45) %REMean = 100.0 (9/9) Results and DiscussionSecondary Modeling for l Reverse, Two-phase Linear Model l = 1.841 – [2.529.(T-22.64)] if T 22.64 l = 1.841 if T = 22.64 Results and DiscussionAPZ Analysis: Secondary Model for