ON A SMOOTH TRACK.docVIP

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ON A SMOOTH TRACK.doc

ON A SMOOTH TRACK   China’s 2016 economic growth rate may stand slightly higher than 6.7 percent, the figure registered in the first nine months of the year. There are signs that the economy is bottoming out, as macroeconomic indicators in the first three quarters show that the economy has almost reached its nadir.    Growth engines   One piece of evidence is that domestic consumption continues to increase steadily by around 10 percent annually. China’s retail sales of consumer goods grew 9.8 percent year on year from January to September, 0.1 percentage point higher than the rate in the first half of 2016.   As for employment data, the 10.67 million new jobs created in the first nine months have met the government’s annual target ahead of schedule. Per-capita disposable income increased by 6.3 percent, closely trailing GDP growth. Given such robust employment and income figures, a stable increase in domestic spending is likely to continue throughout the year 2016, underpinning stable growth of the broader economy.   Robust infrastructure construction is another buoy for the economy. Investment in the sector, surging by 19.4 percent in the first three quarters from a year earlier, accounted for a quarter of the country’s total investment, a sharp rise from the 17 percent in 2012. It is set to be a stabilizer for the nation’s investment growth. Infrastructure construction is expected to shoot up in late 2016, with projects in the pipeline and under construction as well as ample capital.   In addition, the property market is expected to remain stable. The first three quarters of 2016 witnessed a 5.8-percent hike in housing investment. The market has been red hot in some cities since the first quarter. At present, local governments are correcting their housing markets with differentiated measures and restrictions put in place based on local conditions. The market frenzy is showing tentative signs of cooling in the near term, which will help to stabilize inves

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