中国税收增长的理论分析和实证研究——中国1992—2002年税收增长个案分析.pdfVIP

中央财经大学学报 2003年第9期 中国税收增长的理论分析和实证研究 中国1992—2002年税收增长个案分析 The Theoretic and Positive Research of Chinese Tax Growth in 1992—2002 钱 晟 卢凌波 QIAN Cheng LU Ling—bo (中国人民大学 北京 100872) [摘 要]本文尝试从税收来源和使用角度分析税收增长的动因，指出税收增长是供给约束和需求刺 激两类因素共同作用相互平衡的结果，并在此基础上提出了税收增长的供求模型。运用该模型，论文对于 中国1992—2002年税收增长的主要因素，以及这些因素变动与税收增长之间的动态关系进行了初步的理 论探讨和实证分析。研究结论表明，1994年税制改革在税收高增长中发挥主要作用。1998年以来实施的 积极财政政策成为拉动我国税收收入高速增长的直接动因，并形成增长的拐点。同时，本文针对近年来税 收增长数倍于GDP增长的现象以及不断攀升的税收弹性系数进行了较为深入的剖析，指出税收增长应同 时具备适度弹性和长期稳定性两个特征，既要保证税收增长与经济增长的联系和互动，又要能满足长期的 财政需求。 Abstract：This paper makes an effort to analyze tax growth in aspects of government income and ex— penditure．It is presented that tax growth results from the co—operation and tradeoff between supply ca— pacity and demand incentive．Then the supply and demand model of tax growth is put forward to generalize the situation．Using this model，the paper makes some theoretic discuss and positive analysis about the major factors that influence the Chinese tax growth in 1 992-——2002 and the roles and relationships among these factors．The conclusions include：tax reform in 1994 plays a major role in recent high tax growth； the expansionary policy since 1 998 is the direct reason that causes the change of tax growth tendency；and SO on．The paper also makes a great effort to review the change of tax—economy elasticity and the relation between slowing--down GDP growth and higher tax growth．It is presented that proper tax growth will be elastic and Iong—term stable SO that it not only satisfies the government but also promotes economic devel— opment． [关键词]税收增长 中国税收 个案研究 Key words：Tax growth China tax Positive research [中图分类号]F812．42 [文献标识码]A r文章编号1 1000—1549(2003)09--0009--08 、 引言 改革开放以来，我国税收收入一直保持了较高增长的态势，为国民经济的稳定发展提供