亚太若干地区恶性肿瘤流行趋势分析.pdfVIP

肺癌 2004 军 9 月 25 日第 24 卷第 5 期 Tumor Sep. 2004. Vo 1. 24. No. 5 流行病学研究 亚太若干地区恶性肿瘤流行趋势分析 2 3 h 蔡琳t Binh Yang Donald M. Parkin 张作风 采用世界标化人口计算恶性肿瘤年发 摘要:目的 研究亚洲太平洋若干地区恶性肿瘤造成的疾病负担及其流行趋势。方法 50 年恶性肿瘤流行趋势。结果 亚太 病率和死亡率，提出重点防治的癌症。在估计人口增长和人口老化的基础上，预测今后 若干地区 2000 年恶性肿瘤新发病例 300 多万，死亡 200 多万，现患病例 540 万。最常发生的是胃癌(占 16.4%) ，肺癌(占 15.8%) 和肝癌〈占 13.6%) 。预计 2050 年恶性肿瘤发病和死亡例数将是 2000 年的 2 倍以上，新发病例和死亡病例将分别达 到 780 万和 570 万。结论 随着人口增长和平均期望寿命增加，恶性肿瘤造成的疾病负担将明显加重。 关键词:肿瘤/流行病学; 肿瘤/预防和控制z 发病率; 死亡率; 危险因素; 预防 中图分类号:R730.1 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1000-7431(2004)05-0422-05 Cancer trends in Asian Pacific rim region CAI Lin , Binh Yang , Donald M. Parkin , ZHANG Zuofeng * ? CDeρart- ment of Epidemiology , Fujian Medical University , Fuzhou , Fuzhou 350004 , China) Abstract: Objective To study the current burden of cancer and future cancer trends in Asian Pacific rim region. Methods Inci dence and mortality data were age-standardized to the world stand population. The major cancers were presented. The prediction for cancer trend over the next fifty years was based on population growth and aging. Resu Its Over 3 million new cases , over 2 million deaths , and S. 4 million people living with cancer occurred in Asian Pacific rim region in 2000. The most common incident cancers are stomach (1 6.4%) , lung (1 5.8%) and liver (1 3.6%). The number of new cases and deaths from all cancers is ex- pected to more than double from 2000 to 2050. In 2050 , 7. 8million new cancer cases and 5. 7mi1lion deaths from cancer are antic ipated. Conclusion The burden of cancer wi1l greatly increase in the d