一种新的自动发电控制容量预测和获取机制.pdfVIP

第 39 卷第 5 期 2005 年 5 月 浙江大学学报(工学版) ] ournal of Zhej iang U niversi ty (Engineering Science) Vo l. 39 No.5 May 2005 一种新的自动发电控制容量预测和获取机制 赵学顺 l ，汪 震 1 ，文福拴1 ， 2 ，甘德强 l ，黄民翔 l ，孙维真3 (1.浙江大学电气工程学院，浙江杭州 310027; 2. 香港大学电机电子工程学系，香港: 3. 浙江省电力调度通信中心，浙江杭州 31000 7) 摘 要:针对统一的区域电力市场尚未建立而省级间电力交易日益频繁的市场化环境，研究了自动发电控制 CAGC)容 量需求的预测和获取机制.从系统安全性的角度出发，构建了 AGC 容量需求预测和动态修正模型，考虑了负荷预测误 差、机组调节性能和联络线偏差等因素.基于 AGC 容量集中投标的市场运营模式，通过权衡 AGC 调节容量获取成本和 联络线偏差处罚费用，建立了兼顾市场运营经济性和系统运行安全性的 AGC 容量预测和获取方法.通过基于浙江省电 力市场实际数据的仿真算例，说明了所提出方法的基本特征和可行性. 关键词:电力市场;辅助服务;自动发电控制 CAGC) ;需求预测 中图分类号: TM732 文献标i只码 :A 文章编号: 1008 - 973X(2005)05 - 0685 - 06 New framework for forecasting and procuring automatic generation control capacity ZHAO Xue-shun 1 , W ANG Zhen 1 , WEN Fu-shuan 1 ,2 , GAN De-qiang 1 , HUANG Min-xiang 1 , SUN Wei-zhen 3 (1. College 0/ Electrical Engineering , Zhejiang University , Hangzhou 310027 , China; 2. De户artment 0/ Electrical and Electronic Engineering , The University 0/ Hong Kong , Hong Kong , China; 3. Zhej iang Provincial Electric Power Distatching and Communication Center , Hangzhou 310007 , China) Abstract: This work presented a new framework for forecasting and procuring automatic generation control CAGC) capacity in order to achieve optimal balance between economic efficiency and system security in the competitive electricity market environment. The load deviation percentages obtained for each studied trading period based on historical data were used to make a preliminary estimation of AGC capacity requirement , and then a dynamic revision model was developed to refine the estimation by taking some relevant factors such as the control performance standard C CPS) , units regulation capabilìties and load forecast errors into account. A procuring method of AGC capacity was presented by trading off between penalties for tie-line power flow deviations and costs of AGC capacity procurement. A numerical example based on the historical data of Zhejiang provincial electricity marke