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Climate change impacts on crop yield
Available online at /locate/pnsc
Progress in Natural Science 19 (2009) 1665–1674Review
Climate change impacts on crop yield, crop water productivity
and food security – A review
Yinhong Kang a, Shahbaz Khan b,*, Xiaoyi Ma a
aDepartment of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest AF University, Yangling 712100, China
bDivision of Water Sciences, UNESCO, 1 Rue Miollis, 75 732 Paris Cedex 15, SP, France
Received 20 May 2009; received in revised form 8 August 2009; accepted 14 August 2009Abstract
This paper provides a comprehensive review of literature related to the assessment of climate change impacts on crop productivity
using climate, water and crop yield models. The existing studies present that climate change models with higher spatial resolution
can be a way forward for future climate projections. Meanwhile, stochastic projections of more than one climate model are necessary
for providing insights into model uncertainties as well as to develop risk management strategies. It is projected that water availability
will increase in some parts of the world, which will have its own effect on water use efficiency and water allocation. Crop production
can increase if irrigated areas are expanded or irrigation is intensified, but these may increase the rate of environmental degradation.
Since climate change impacts on soil water balance will lead to changes of soil evaporation and plant transpiration, consequently, the
crop growth period may shorten in the future impacting on water productivity. Crop yields affected by climate change are projected
to be different in various areas, in some areas crop yields will increase, and for other areas it will decrease depending on the latitude
of the area and irrigation application. Existing modelling results show that an increase in precipitation will increase crop yield, and what
is more, crop yield is more sensitive to the precipitation than temperature. If water availability is reduced in the future, soils of high
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