基于LMDI的中国石化产业CO2排放的解耦分析.pdfVIP

第 39卷第 10期 201 2 年 1 0 月 文章编号 :1674-2974(2012)10-0098-05 湖南大学学报(自然科学版) Journal of Hunan University(Natural Sciences) Vol. 39 , No.10 Oct. 2 0 1 2 基于 LMDI 的中国石化产业 CO2排放的解藕分析提 张建华1，灯，鞠晓峰1 (1.哈尔滨工业大学经济管理学院，黑龙江哈尔滨 150001;2. 东北石油大学石油经济研究所，黑龙江大庆 163318) 摘 要:针对石化产业提出了解稿状态模型，并运用对数乎均边氏分解( Logarithmic Mean Divisia lndex , LMD1)方法构建了石化产业二氧化碳排放的影响因素模型，探索石化 产业能源强度、能源结构、能源效率与产业结构对石化产业二氧化破排放的影响.研究结采 显示:中国石化产业经历了 4 个阶段:强烈的消极解相阶段(1999-2002 年〉、扩张负解搞阶 段(2003-2007 年)、弱解搞阶段(2008- 2009 年)和强解辑阶段(2010 年) ，已呈现出强解 藕的低模经济特征.能源强度是影响石化产业解辑效果实现的关键性因素，而产业结构调 整并没有显示出明显的解藕效采. 关键词:石化;产业;二氧化碳;排放;低碳 申固分类号: F120. 3 文献标识码 :A Decoupling Analysis of Carbon Dioxide Emission by Chinese Petrochemícal Industry Based on LMDI ZHANG Jian-hua 1 ,2t , JU Xiao-feng 1 (l. :;元h∞1 of E∞nornics and Management , Harbín Inst?tute of Technology , Harb?n , Heílongjiang 150001 , China; 2. Institute of α1 Econornic and Management Res臼rch ， Northeast Petroleurn Univ , Daqi吨， Heilongj?ang 163318 , China) Abslract: Based on the Petrochemical Industry , thìs paper put forward a decoupling model , and adopt- ed LMDI (Log Mean Divisìa lndex) method to construct an influencìng factor model of carbon dìoxide e- rnission , which explored the irnpacts of industry energy intensity , energy scale , energy efficiency and in- dustrial structure on the carbon dioxide ernissions frorn the Petrochemical lndustry. The research indicates that Chinese Petrochemical Industry has gone through four stages: Strong negative decoupling (1999- 2002) , Expansive negative decoupling (2003-2007) , Weak decoupling (2008-2009) and Strong decoupling (2010) ,and has taken on low-carbon econornícal characteristics ofStrong decoupling. The result shows that energy intensity is a key factor influencing decoupling effect , while adjusting industríal structure has failed to show clear decoupling effect. Key words: petrochernical; industry; carbon dioxide; ernission; low carbon 石化产业作为国民经济的支柱产业，既是能源 生产大户，又是能源消耗大户，因此石化产业在我国 脊 收稿日期: 2012-03 -22 基金项目: