Application of gray system to predict the incidence of hepatitis B study.docVIP

 PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 6 Application of gray system to predict the incidence of hepatitis B study Author: Qin Tang Fu-Xin Zhang Yiwei Li Wei Zhen Wei [Abstract] Objective: To understand the Nanning City for 10 years the incidence of hepatitis B, a mathematical model and make predictions for the prevention and control of hepatitis B virus provide a scientific basis. Methods: The collection and analysis of Nanning City from 1996 to 2005 hepatitis B epidemiological data to establish the incidence rate (1 / 10 million) of gray system GM (1,1) model and make predictions. Results: 10 years, Nanning City, the incidence of hepatitis B in 1999 a minimum of 27.88/10 million in 2001 up to 52.82/10 million. Forecast Nanning in 2008, 2010, the incidence of hepatitis B, respectively 67.73/10 million 77.59/10 million. Conclusion: The continued high prevalence for hepatitis B situation, should continue to strengthen the fight against efforts to carry out scientific research to develop control strategies, and adopt comprehensive measures to actively control the prevalence of hepatitis B and dissemination. [Keywords:] hepatitis B; gray system; Forecast Hepatitis B virus (hereinafter referred to as hepatitis B) is from the hepatitis B virus (HBV) caused by an infectious disease, which are widely spread all over the world there are different degrees of popularity, is known hazards in all types of viral hepatitis The most serious one type has been classified as World Health Organization to strengthen the control and eventual eradication of infectious diseases [1]. It is in addition to smoking lead to human cancer than the second serious disease [2]. Hepatitis B to patients, families and society caused by a heavy financial burden to the socio-economic development impact can not be ignored is that many families impoverished by hospitalization, illness into poverty once again the important reasons, but also trigger a series of social problems, China is now Phase one of the most pr