Scientific decision-making, from the statistics start.docVIP

 PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 8 Scientific decision-making, from the statistics start Weather, life in most need precision, while a decision is actually difficult to do. As a result, less accumulated historical data, we can not find a long-period weather of law; and secondly, frequent extreme weather and unpredictable, and even afterwards is difficult to thorough analysis; three years, statistical techniques can not keep up, software and hardware technologies even more developed, we can control these machines and systems people, vulnerable to their own experiences, prejudices or so. A hundred years ago, based on the effectiveness of medical (EBM, Evidence-Based Medicine), also known as evidence-based medicine, the medical profession has changed dramatically. Prior personal experience groping train an apprentice chef, unique Cheats, all of a sudden be replaced by statistical analysis. This originated in the epidemiology of statistical techniques, and then quickly applied to the economic and business areas, to governments, institutions and businesses in the scientific decision-making, it has played a revolutionary role. So, data and statistical analysis What are the values? Make the best judgment of thinking. Results of statistical analysis, but to guide you to make the best decisions and firm action, but it does not represent the results of decisions. Ye Duiming that: the process of implementation, there will be some things that do not meet the statistical analysis beforehand, which requires adaptable and decisive decision-making. Of course, these ‘unexpected’ data, will enter the next round, ‘the collection of data for analysis’ link to arrive at a better or more suitable for new answers. The basic logic of statistical data: assumptions and verified to be fully consistent with business decisions. Bold hypothesis, test your Creators force of a trade or industry, there is no own unique observation and understanding, and thus differentiated choice. A carefu