并购整合成本的影响因素分析和计算方法研究.pdfVIP

系统工程学报 第 28 卷第4 期 Vo1.28 No .4 2013 年8 月 JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS ENGINEERING Aug.2013 并购整合成本的影响因素分析和计算方法研究 刘洪久12，马卫民2，胡彦蓉1 (1.常熟理工学院管理学院，江苏常熟 215500; 2. 同济大学经济与管理学院，上海 200092) 摘要:合理地评估整合成本，有利于减少并购的风险并购整合有成功和失败两种结果，整合成功现金流变化采用 正弦曲线拟合，失败则采用指数曲线拟合.考虑整合成功概率为p， 失败概率为l-p 的条件下，整合成本的期望值可 以通过预期现金流和实际现金流的差额求净现值之和得到.模型的具体参数需要在对能力的传递、并购双方的文 化差异程度和目标企业员工的知觉状况进行统计分析和专家评估的基础上确定.最后，提出基于DCF 法的并购价 值为传统价值减去并购整合成本的期望值. 关键词:并购;影响因素;整合成本 中固分类号: F275.5 文献标识码:A 文章编号:10∞-5781(2013)04-0472一08 Analysis of influencing factors and calculating method of integration cost in mergers and acquisitions Liu Hongjiu 1,2 , Ma Weimin2 , Hu Yanrong 1 (1. School of Management, Changshu Institute of Technology, Changshu 2155∞， China; 2. School of Economy and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai 2α)()92， China ) Abstract: Evaluating integration cost reasonably is available to decrease the risk of mergers and acquisitions (MA). There are two results of integration including success and failure. Cash flow accords with sine distri- bution if integration is successful while it accords with exponentia1 distribution if it fails. Supposep represents probability of successful integration and 1 - p is 出at of failing. Expected integration cost is 出巳 sum of present va1ue of di旺erences between expected and actual cash flow. Parameters of the model are decided according to statistic ana1ysis and experts eva1uation for capability transfer, cultura1 difference and employees perception. Fina1 1y, value of MA based on D