Comparison of four models simulating phosphorus dynamics in Lake V nern, Sweden.docVIP

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 8(6), 1153?1163 (2004) ? EGU Comparison of four models simulating phosphorus dynamics in Lake V?nern, Sweden Magnus Dahl and B. Charlotta Pers 1 2 1 2 Department of Chemical Engineering, Karlstad University, SE-651 88 Karlstad, Sweden Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SE-601 76 Norrk?ping, Sweden Email for corresponding author: charlotta.pers@smhi.se Abstract This paper compares four water quality models applied to Lake V?nern, Sweden. The comparison is focused on phosphorus, the primary limiting nutrient in Lake V?nern. Two of the models, FYRIS? and HBV-NP, are simple and were developed as parts of catchment models. Two other models, called LEEDS and BIOLA, are more comprehensive lake models. The models were calibrated using data from the period 1985?1992 and validated using data from the period 1993?2000. The fit to calibration data is similar for the FYRIS?, HBV-NP, and LEEDS models, and slightly worse for the BIOLA model. All models fit the validation data almost as well as the calibration data. The models? behaviour was tested in two representative scenarios. An increase of emissions by 40% from a pulp and paper mill has a negligible effect on the water quality, while a decrease in phosphorus load by 14% (accomplished by better waste-water treatment in rural households) gives a considerable decrease in phosphorus concentration in the lake. Still, the results of the scenarios vary between the models. Keywords : lake, phosphorus, model, scenarios, simulation Introduction became widely used. It predicts the total phosphorus of a Eutrophication is a problem of immediate interest in many water bodies, not the least in lakes (e.g. Reynolds, 1999). Excess of nutrient load causes la