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Downscaling of daily precipitation with a stochastic weather generator for the subtropical region in South China.doc

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Downscaling of daily precipitation with a stochastic weather generator for the subtropical region in South China

Hydrol.EarthSyst.Sci.Discuss.,3,1145–1183,2006 /3/1145/2006/ ?Author(s)2006.Thisworkislicensed Hydrology and Earth System Sciences HESSD 3,1145–1183,2006 Discussions underaCreativeCommonsLicense. Downscalingofdaily precipitation PaperspublishedinHydrologyandEarthSystemSciencesDiscussionsareunder open-accessreviewforthejournalHydrologyandEarthSystemSciences Y.D.Chenetal. Downscalingofdailyprecipitationwitha stochasticweathergeneratorforthe subtropicalregioninSouthChina TitlePage Abstract Conclusions Tables Introduction References Figures Y.D.Chen ,X.Chen ,C.-Y.Xu ,andQ.Shao4 1 2 3 J J I I 1DepartmentofGeographyandResourceManagement,TheChineseUniversityofHong Kong,Shatin,HongKong,China 2StateKeyLaboratoryofHydrology-WaterResourcesandHydraulicEngineering,Hohai University,Nanjing,China Back Close 3DepartmentofGeosciences,UniversityofOslo,Norway 4CSIROMathematicalandInformationSciences,LeeuwinCentre,65BroadwayRoad,Floreat Park,WA6014,Australia FullScreen/Esc Printer-friendlyVersion InteractiveDiscussion Received:9February2006–Accepted:1April2006–Published:27June2006 Correspondenceto:Y.D.Chen(ydavidchen@.hk) EGU 1145 Abstract HESSD Daily precipitation series at station or local scales is a critical input for rainfall-runo? modellingwhich,inturn,playsavitalroleintheassessmentofclimatechangeimpact onhydrologicprocessesandmanyotherwaterresourcestudies. Futureclimatepro- jectedbyGeneralCirculationModels(GCMs)presentsaveragedvaluesinlargescales. Therefore, downscaling techniques are usually needed to transfer GCM-derived cli- mateoutputsintostation-basedvalues.Inthisstudy,astatisticaldownscalingmodelis investigatedanditsapplicabilityingeneratingdailyprecipitationseriesistestedinthe subtropicalregionofSouthChina,whichhasnotbeeninvestigatedbefore.Themodel 3,1145–1183,2006 Downscalingofdaily precipitation 5 Y.D.Chenetal. 10 includesthe?rst-orderMarkovchainformodelingwetdayprobability,Gammadistribu- tionfunctionfordescribingvariationofwet-dayprecipitationamounts,andas