房地产资本税对房地产业及国民经济影响的实证研究.pdfVIP

统计研究 Vo I. 30 , No.S 第 30 卷第511 lO13 每5 月 Sta笛s阳1 R，由嗣rcb May 2013 房地产资本税对房地产业 及国民经济影响的实证研究* 梁云芳张同斌高玲玲 内寝提要=本文构建了房地产资本税的可计算一般均衡(CGE) 模型，考察了房地产资本税政策对房地产业及 国民经济的影响。结论表明，房地产资本税率的提高可以拉动房地产业的发展，而房地产资本税率降低则有利于 房地产业的内部结构优化。增加房地产资本税收能够促进与房地产业后向关联较大的原材料工业和金融业、前向 关联较大的生产者服务业和消费者服务业的产出增长。房地产资本税率增加还会使得物价上升、政府和居民的收 入增长，但税率上升导致要素相对价格的变化使得对资本要素的需求减少。此外，房地产资本税能够减缓房价变 动对经济的冲击，并且具有典型的内在稳定器作用。 关键词:房地产资本税:国民经济;CGE 模型:内在稳定器 中回分类号:C812 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1002 -4565(2013)05 -0037-10 The Empirical Study of EfTects of Real Estate Capital Tax Policy 00 Real Estate Iodustry and National Economy Liang Yunfang Zhang Tongbin Gao Lingling Abstract: This paper specified the real estate capital tax computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and studied the effects of real estate capital tax policy on the real estate industry and national economy. The results show that upgrading the real estate capital tax rate can promote the development of real estate industry , and the real estate capital rate reduction is helpful for the intemal structure optimization of the real estate industry. Increasing the real estate capital tax rate can a1 so promote the output grow由 of raw material industry and the linancial sector that have high backward relationship of real estate industry , and the output gr咽wth of producer service industry and consumer services that have high forward correlation with real estate industry. Real estate capital rate increase promotes prices rise and enhances the govemment and residents in