Analytical Model of Landslide Risk Using GIS英文文献资料.docVIP

Open Journal of Geology, 2012, 2, 182-188 /10.4236/ojg.2012.23018 Published Online July 2012 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/ojg) Analytical Model of Landslide Risk Using GIS Claudio F. Mahler , Erika Varanda , Luiz C. D. de Oliveira 1 2 3 1 Department of Civil Engineering, COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Transpetro S/A, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 2 3 Centro Federal de Educa??o Tecnológica Celso Suckow da Fonseca/UnED-Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Email: cfmahler@acd.ufrj.br Received April 12, 2012; revised May 24, 2012; accepted June 4, 2012 ABSTRACT This paper presents a model for quantitative risk analysis with the application of geographic information systems (GISs) using Bayesian theory. It was used for the thematic integration of maps in a natural state (vegetation, geological-geo- technical, natural drainage and gradient). A landslide susceptibility map was produced based on this integration associ- ated with vulnerability data (time and housing construction standards) and risk criteria. A quantitative risk map for a specific area was also drawn up from this data. Keywords: Risk; Landslide; GIS; Bayesian Theory 1. Introduction and reduce inaccuracy in comparison with the work done by hand. Landslides are extremely important geological/geomor- phologic processes. Although they are natural evolution- ary processes of relief, they often claim many victims and/or cause significant material losses, as well as help unleash other events, such as erosion processes. Urban consolidation in mid-size and large towns and cities and the consequent disorganised land occupation in the past few decades are the prime factors responsible for catas- trophes in various regions of Brazil. In land planning and organisation, one of most impor- tant stages involves zoning in accordance with differ