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An Epidemiological Framework for Modelling Fungicide Dynamics and Control 英文参考文献
AnEpidemiologicalFrameworkforModellingFungicide
DynamicsandControl
MatthewD.Castle*,ChristopherA.Gilligan
DepartmentofPlantSciences,UniversityofCambridge,Cambridge,UnitedKingdom
Abstract
Defining appropriate policies for controlling the spread of fungal disease in agricultural landscapes requires appropriate
theoreticalmodels.Mostexistingmodelsforthefungicidalcontrolofplantdiseasesdonotexplicitlyincludethedynamics
ofthefungicideitself,nordotheyconsidertheimpactofinfectionoccurringduringthehostgrowthphase.Weintroducea
modellingframeworkforfungicideapplicationthatallowsustoconsiderhow‘‘explicit’’modellingoffungicidedynamics
affectstheinvasionandpersistenceofplantpathogens.Specifically,weshowthat‘‘explicit’’modelsexhibitbistabilityzones
forvaluesofthebasicreproductivenumber(R0)lessthanonewithinwhichtheinvasionandpersistencethresholddepends
on the initial infectionlevels. Thisis in contrastto classical models where invasionand persistence thresholds aresolely
dependentonR0.Inadditionifinitialinfectionoccursduringthegrowthphasethenanadditional‘‘invasionzone’’canexist
for even smaller values of R0. Within this region the system will experience an epidemic that is not able to persist. We
furthershowthatidealfungicideswithhighlevelsofeffectiveness,lowratesofapplicationandlowratesofdecayleadto
theexistenceofthesebistabilityzones.Theresultsarerobusttotheinclusionofdemographicstochasticity.
Citation: Castle MD, Gilligan CA (2012) An Epidemiological Framework for Modelling Fungicide Dynamics and Control. PLoS ONE 7(8): e40941. doi:10.1371/
journal.pone.0040941
Editor:SimonGubbins,InstituteforAnimalHealth,UnitedKingdom
ReceivedApril5,2012;AcceptedJune15,2012;PublishedAugust10,2012
Copyright: ? 2012 Castle, Gilligan. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits
unrestricteduse,distribution,andreproductioninanymedium,providedtheoriginalauthorandsourcearecredited.
Funding: MDC acknowledges the support of a B
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