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Estimated HIV Incidence in the United States, 2006–2009 英文参考文献
EstimatedHIVIncidenceintheUnitedStates,2006–2009
JosephPrejean1*,RuiguangSong1,AngelaHernandez1,RebeccaZiebell2,TimothyGreen1 ,Frances
Walker1,LillianS.Lin1,QianAn1,JonathanMermin1,AmyLansky1,H.IreneHall1,fortheHIVIncidence
SurveillanceGroup
1DivisionofHIV/AIDSPrevention,NationalCenterforHIV,ViralHepatitis,STDandTBPrevention,CentersforDiseaseControlandPrevention,Atlanta,Georgia,United
StatesofAmerica,2TheGinnGroup,PeachtreeCity,Georgia,UnitedStatesofAmerica
Abstract
Background:TheestimatednumberofnewHIVinfectionsintheUnitedStatesreflectstheleadingedgeoftheepidemic.
Previously,CDCestimatedHIVincidenceintheUnitedStatesin2006as56,300(95%CI:48,200–64,500).Weupdatedthe
2006estimateandcalculatedincidencefor2007–2009usingimprovedmethodology.
Methodology:Weestimatedincidenceusingincidencesurveillancedatafrom16statesand2citiesandamodificationof
our previously described stratified extrapolation method based on a sample survey approach with multiple imputation,
stratification,andextrapolationtoaccountformissingdataandheterogeneityofHIVtestingbehavioramongpopulation
groups.
PrincipalFindings:EstimatedHIVincidenceamongpersonsaged13yearsandolderwas48,600(95%CI:42,400–54,700)in
2006,56,000(95%CI:49,100–62,900)in2007,47,800(95%CI:41,800–53,800)in2008and48,100(95%CI:42,200–54,000)in
2009. From 2006 to 2009 incidence did not change significantly overall or among specific race/ethnicity or risk groups.
However,therewasa21%(95%CI:1.9%–39.8%;p=0.017)increaseinincidenceforpeopleaged13–29years,drivenbya
34%(95%CI:8.4%–60.4%)increaseinyoungmenwhohavesexwithmen(MSM).Therewasa48%increaseamongyoung
black/African American MSM (12.3%–83.0%; p,0.001). Among people aged 13–29, only MSM experienced significant
increases in incidence, and among 13–29 year-old MSM, incidence increased significantly among young, black/African
AmericanMSM.In2009,MSMaccountedfor61%ofnewinfections,heterosexualcontact27%,injectiondruguse(IDU)9%,
andMSM/IDU3%.
Conclusions/Significance: Overall, HIV incidence in the United
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