Estimating the Duration of Pertussis Immunity Using Epidemiological Signatures 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Estimating the Duration of Pertussis Immunity Using Epidemiological Signatures 英文参考文献.doc

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Estimating the Duration of Pertussis Immunity Using Epidemiological Signatures 英文参考文献

EstimatingtheDurationofPertussisImmunityUsing EpidemiologicalSignatures HelenJ.Wearing1*,PejmanRohani2,3¤ 1DepartmentofBiologyandDepartmentofMathematicsStatistics,UniversityofNewMexico,Albuquerque,NewMexico,UnitedStatesofAmerica,2OdumSchoolof EcologyandCenterforTropicalandEmergingGlobalDiseases,UniversityofGeorgia,Athens,Georgia,UnitedStatesofAmerica,3FogartyInternationalCenter,National InstitutesofHealth,Bethesda,Maryland,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Casenotificationsofpertussishaveshownanincreaseinanumberofcountrieswithhighratesofroutinepediatricimmunization. Thishasledtosignificantpublichealthconcernsoverapossiblepertussisre-emergence.Aleadingproposedexplanationforthe observedincreaseinincidenceisthelossofimmunitytopertussis,whichisknowntooccurafterbothnaturalinfectionand vaccination.Littleisknown,however,aboutthetypicaldurationofimmunityanditsepidemiologicalimplications.Here,we analyzeasimplemathematicalmodel,exploringspecificallytheinter-epidemicperiodandfade-outfrequency.Thesepredictions are then contrasted with detailed incidence data for England and Wales. We find model output to be most sensitive to assumptionsconcerningnaturallyacquiredimmunity,whichallowsustoestimatetheaveragedurationofimmunity.Ourresults supportaperiodofnaturalimmunitythatis,onaverage,long-lasting(atleast30years)butinherentlyvariable. Citation: Wearing HJ, Rohani P (2009) Estimating the Duration of Pertussis Immunity Using Epidemiological Signatures. PLoS Pathog 5(10): e1000647. doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1000647 Editor:BruceR.Levin,EmoryUniversity,UnitedStatesofAmerica ReceivedSeptember3,2008;AcceptedOctober5,2009;PublishedOctober30,2009 Copyright: ?2009Wearing,Rohani.Thisisanopen-accessarticledistributedunderthetermsoftheCreativeCommonsAttributionLicense,whichpermits unrestricteduse,distribution,andreproductioninanymedium,providedtheoriginalauthorandsourcearecredited. Funding: This work was supported by the National Institutes of Health (R01 GM69111), the National Science Foundation