Evaluation of Location-Specific Predictions by a Detailed Simulation Model of Aedes aegypti Populations 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Evaluation of Location-Specific Predictions by a Detailed Simulation Model of Aedes aegypti Populations 英文参考文献.doc

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Evaluation of Location-Specific Predictions by a Detailed Simulation Model of Aedes aegypti Populations 英文参考文献

EvaluationofLocation-SpecificPredictionsbyaDetailed SimulationModelofAedesaegyptiPopulations MathieuLegros1,2*,KrisztianMagori3,AmyC.Morrison2,ChonggangXu1,ThomasW.Scott2,4,AlunL. Lloyd4,5,FredGould1,4 1DepartmentofEntomology,NorthCarolinaStateUniversity,Raleigh,NorthCarolina,UnitedStatesofAmerica, 2DepartmentofEntomology,UniversityofCalifornia Davis,Davis,California,UnitedStatesofAmerica,3OdumSchoolofEcology,UniversityofGeorgia,Athens,Georgia,UnitedStatesofAmerica, 4FogartyInternational Center,NationalInstitutesofHealth,Bethesda,Maryland,UnitedStatesofAmerica,5DepartmentofMathematicsandBiomathematicsGraduateProgram,NorthCarolina StateUniversity,Raleigh,NorthCarolina,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Background: Skeeter Busteris astochastic, spatially explicitsimulation modelof Aedes aegypti populations, designedto predicttheoutcomeofvectorpopulationcontrolmethods.Inthisstudy,weapplythemodeltotwospecificlocations,the citiesofIquitos,Peru,andBuenosAires,Argentina.Thesetwositesdifferintheamountoffielddatathatisavailablefor location-specific customization. By comparing output from Skeeter Buster to field observations in these two cases we evaluatepopulationdynamicspredictionsbySkeeterBusterwithvaryingdegreesofcustomization. Methodology/PrincipalFindings:SkeeterBusterwascustomizedtotheIquitoslocationbysimulatingthelayoutofhouses and the associated distribution of water-holding containers, based on extensive surveys of Ae. aegypti populations and larvalhabitatsthathavebeenconductedinIquitosforover10years.Themodeliscalibratedbyadjustingthefoodinput into various types of containers to match their observed pupal productivity in the field. We contrast the output of this customizedmodeltothedatacollectedfromthenaturalpopulation,comparingpupalnumbersandspatialdistributionof pupaeinthepopulation.OurresultsshowthatSkeeterBusterreplicatesspecificpopulationdynamicsandspatialstructure ofAe.aegyptiinIquitos.WethenshowhowSkeeterBustercanbecustomizedforBuenosAires,whe