Evolutionary Entropy Determines Invasion Success in Emergent Epidemics 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Evolutionary Entropy Determines Invasion Success in Emergent Epidemics 英文参考文献.doc

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Evolutionary Entropy Determines Invasion Success in Emergent Epidemics 英文参考文献

EvolutionaryEntropyDeterminesInvasionSuccessin EmergentEpidemics ChristopherJ.Rhodes1*,LloydDemetrius2,3 1Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom, 2Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge,Massachusetts,UnitedStatesofAmerica,3MaxPlanckInstituteforMolecularGenetics,Berlin,Germany Abstract Background: Standard epidemiological theory claims that in structured populations competition between multiple pathogen strains is a deterministic process which is mediated by the basic reproduction number (R0) of the individual strains.Anewtheorybasedonanalysis,simulationandempiricalstudychallengesthispredictorofsuccess. PrincipalFindings:WeshowthatthequantityR0isavalidpredictorinstructuredpopulationsonlywhensizeisinfinite.In thisarticleweshowthatwhenpopulationsizeisfinitethedynamicsofinfectionbymulti-strainpathogensisastochastic processwhoseoutcomecanbepredictedbyevolutionaryentropy,S,aninformationtheoreticmeasurewhichdescribesthe uncertainty in the infectious age of an infected parent of a randomly chosen new infective. Evolutionary entropy characterisesthedemographicstabilityorrobustnessofthepopulationofinfectives.Thisstatisticalparameterdetermines thedurationofinfectionandthusprovidesaquantitativeindexofthepathogenicityofastrain.Standardepidemiological theorybasedonR0asameasureofselectiveadvantageisthelimitasthepopulationsizetendstoinfinityoftheentropic selectiontheory.Thestandard modelis anapproximationtotheentropic selectiontheorywhosevalidity increaseswith populationsize. Conclusion: An epidemiological analysis based on entropy is shown to explain empirical observations regarding the emergence of less pathogenic strains of human influenza during the antigenic drift phase. Furthermore, we exploit the entropyperspectivetodiscusscertainepidemiologicalpatternsofthecurrentH1N1swine’fluoutbreak. Citation: Rhodes CJ, Demetrius L (2010) Evolutionary Entropy Determines Invasion Success in Emerge