Predicting Scholars Scientific Impact 英文参考文献.docVIP

PredictingScholars’ScientificImpact AminMazloumian* ETHZu¨rich,DepartmentofHumanitiesandSocialSciences,ChairofSociology,inparticularofModelingandSimulation,Zu¨rich,Switzerland Abstract We tested the underlying assumption that citation counts are reliable predictors of future success, analyzing complete citation data on the careers of *150,000 scientists. Our results show that i) among all citation indicators, the annual citationsatthetimeofpredictionisthebestpredictoroffuturecitations,ii)futurecitationsofascientist’spublishedpapers canbepredictedaccurately(r2~0:80fora1-yearprediction,Pv0:001)butiii)futurecitationsoffutureworkarehardly predictable. Citation:MazloumianA(2012)PredictingScholars’ScientificImpact.PLoSONE7(11):e49246.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0049246 Editor:SantoFortunato,AaltoUniversity,Finland ReceivedJuly19,2012;AcceptedOctober4,2012;PublishedNovember21,2012 Copyright:?2012AminMazloumian.Thisisanopen-accessarticledistributedunderthetermsoftheCreativeCommonsAttributionLicense,whichpermits unrestricteduse,distribution,andreproductioninanymedium,providedtheoriginalauthorandsourcearecredited. Funding:Theauthorhasnosupportorfundingtoreport. CompetingInterests:Theauthorhasdeclaredthatnocompetinginterestsexist. *E-mail:amin@gess.ethz.ch Introduction defined as the maximum Natural number h for which the scientist has h papers with at least h citations. This gives a lower bound ofh2citations tothescientist. Incomparison with the cumulative number ofcitations, thehindex isnotcritically inflated byasmall number of highly cited papers. Inthe same study, Hirsch defined the mindex asascientist’s hindex value divided bythetime (years) elapsed from thefirst publication of the focal scientist [12]. Manydecisionswithregardtotheallocationofresearchfunds andtheassignmentofpositionsarebasedoncitationcounts[1–4]. Citation counts are considered for awarding post-doctoral fellowships,assigningjuniorfacultypositionsandtenures[5–10]. However,itremainsunclearwhethercitat