Probabilistic Daily ILI Syndromic Surveillance with a Spatio-Temporal Bayesian Hierarchical Model 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Probabilistic Daily ILI Syndromic Surveillance with a Spatio-Temporal Bayesian Hierarchical Model 英文参考文献.doc

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Probabilistic Daily ILI Syndromic Surveillance with a Spatio-Temporal Bayesian Hierarchical Model 英文参考文献

ProbabilisticDailyILISyndromicSurveillancewitha Spatio-TemporalBayesianHierarchicalModel Ta-ChienChan1,2,Chwan-ChuenKing1,3,Muh-YongYen4,Po-HuangChiang2,Chao-ShengHuang5, ChuhsingK.Hsiao1,3 * 1Institute of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, 2Division of Health Policy Research, Institute of Population Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan, 3Department of Public Health, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, 4Department of Disease Control and Prevention, Taipei City Hospital, Taipei City Government, Taipei, Taiwan, 5Graduate Institute of Biomedical Informatics, Taipei MedicalUniversity,Taipei,Taiwan Abstract Background: For daily syndromic surveillance to be effective, an efficient and sensible algorithm would be expected to detectaberrationsininfluenzaillness,andalertpublichealthworkerspriortoanyimpendingepidemic.Thisdetectionor alertsurelycontainsuncertainty,andthusshouldbeevaluatedwithaproperprobabilisticmeasure.However,traditional monitoringmechanismssimplyprovideabinaryalert,failingtoadequatelyaddressthisuncertainty. Methods and Findings: Based on the Bayesian posterior probability of influenza-like illness (ILI) visits, the intensity of outbreakcanbedirectlyassessed.ThenumbersofdailyemergencyroomILIvisitsatfivecommunityhospitalsinTaipeiCity during2006–2007werecollectedandfittedwithaBayesianhierarchicalmodelcontainingmeteorologicalfactorssuchas temperatureandvaporpressure,spatialinteractionwithconditionalautoregressivestructure,weekendandholidayeffects, seasonality factors, and previous ILI visits. The proposed algorithm recommends an alert for action if the posterior probabilityislargerthan70%.ExternaldatafromJanuarytoFebruaryof2008wereretainedforvalidation.Thedecisionrule detects successfully the peak in the validation period. When comparing the posterior probability evaluation with the modifiedCusummethod,resultsshowthattheproposedmethodisabletodetec