Reanalysis of cancer mortality in Japanese A-bomb survivors exposed to low doses of radiation bootstrap and simulation methods 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Reanalysis of cancer mortality in Japanese A-bomb survivors exposed to low doses of radiation bootstrap and simulation methods 英文参考文献.doc

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Reanalysis of cancer mortality in Japanese A-bomb survivors exposed to low doses of radiation bootstrap and simulation methods 英文参考文献

Environmental Health BioMedCentral Research Open Access Reanalysis ofcancer mortality inJapanese A-bomb survivors exposed tolowdoses ofradiation: bootstrap andsimulation methods Greg Dropkin Address: Flat5,32Sheil Road, Liverpool L63AE,UK E-mail: gregd@ Published: 9December 2009 Received: 3February 2009 Accepted: 9December 2009 Environmental Health 2009, 8:56 doi: 10.1186/1476-069X-8-56 This article isavailable from: /content/8/1/56 ?2009Dropkin; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. ThisisanOpenAccess article distributed undertheterms oftheCreative Commons Attribution License (/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use,distribution, andreproduction inanymedium, provided theoriginal workisproperly cited. Abstract Background: The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommended annual occupational dose limit is20mSv. Cancer mortality inJapanese A-bomb survivors exposed toless than 20mSv external radiation in1945 wasanalysed previously, using alatency model with non-linear dose response. Questions were raised regarding statistical inference with this model. Methods: Cancers with over 100deaths inthe0-20mSvsubcohort ofthe1950-1990 LifeSpan Study are analysed with Poisson regression models incorporating latency, allowing linear and non- linear dose response. Bootstrap percentile and Bias-corrected accelerated (BCa) methods and simulation oftheLikelihood Ratio Test lead toConfidence Intervals forExcess Relative Risk (ERR) and tests against the linear model. Results: The linear model shows significant large, positive values of ERR for liver and urinary cancers atlatencies from 37-43years. Dose response below 20mSv isstrongly non-linear atthe optimal latencies for the stomach (11.89 years), liver (36.9), lung (13.6), leukaemia (23.66), and pancreas (11.86) and across broad latency ranges. Confidence Intervals for ERR are comparable using Bootstrap and Likelihood Ratio Test methods and BCa 95% Confidence Intervals are strictly positive acros