Revisiting the Basic Reproductive Number for Malaria and Its Implications for Malaria Control 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Revisiting the Basic Reproductive Number for Malaria and Its Implications for Malaria Control 英文参考文献.doc

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Revisiting the Basic Reproductive Number for Malaria and Its Implications for Malaria Control 英文参考文献

o PL SBIOLOGY RevisitingtheBasicReproductiveNumber forMalariaandItsImplicationsforMalaria Control David L.Smith1*,F.Ellis McKenzie1,Robert W. Snow2,3,Simon I.Hay2,4 1FogartyInternationalCenter,NationalInstitutesofHealth,Bethesda,Maryland,UnitedStatesofAmerica, 2Malaria PublicHealthandEpidemiologyGroup,Centrefor Geographic Medicine, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya, 3 Centre for Tropical Medicine, John Radcliffe Hospital, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom,4SpatialEpidemiologyandEcologyGroup,DepartmentofZoology,UniversityofOxford,Oxford,UnitedKingdom The prospects for the success of malaria control depend, in part, on the basic reproductive number for malaria, R0. Here,weestimateR0inanovelwayfor121Africanpopulations,andtherebyincreasethenumberofR0estimatesfor malariabyanorderofmagnitude.Theestimatesrangefromaroundonetomorethan3,000.Wealsoconsidermalaria transmission and control in finite human populations, of size H. We show that classic formulas approximate the expectednumberofmosquitoesthatcouldtraceinfectionbacktoonemosquitoafteroneparasitegeneration,Z0(H), but they overestimate the expected number of infected humans per infected human, R0(H). Heterogeneous biting increasesR0and,asweshow,Z0(H),butwealsoshowthatitsometimesreducesR0(H);thosewhoarebittenmostboth infectmanyvectorsandabsorbinfectiousbites.ThelargerangeofR0estimatesstronglysupportsthelong-heldnotion thatmalariacontrolpresentsvariablechallengesacrossitstransmissionspectrum.InpopulationswhereR0ishighest, malariacontrolwillrequiremultiple,integratedmethodsthattargetthosewhoarebittenmost.Therefore,strategic planning for malaria control should consider R0, the spatial scale of transmission, human population density, and heterogeneousbiting. Citation:SmithDL,McKenzieFE,SnowRW,HaySI(2007)Revisitingthebasicreproductivenumberformalariaanditsimplicationsformalariacontrol.PLoSBiol5(3):e42. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0050042 control reduces transmission intensity by a factor that