Revised estimates of influenza-associated excess mortality, United States, 1995 through 2005 英文参考文献.docVIP

Emerging Themes in Epidemiology BioMedCentral Methodology Open Access Revised estimates of influenza-associated excess mortality, United States, 1995 through 2005 Ivo M Foppa*1 and Md Monir Hossain2 Address: 1Department of Epidemiology, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, LA 70112, USA and 2Center for Clinical and Translational Sciences, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX 77030, USA Email: Ivo M Foppa* - ifoppa@; Md Monir Hossain - Monir.Hossain@ * Corresponding author Published: 30 December 2008 Received: 5 March 2008 Accepted: 30 December 2008 Emerging Themes in Epidemiology 2008, 5:26 doi:10.1186/1742-7622-5-26 This article is available from: /content/5/1/26 ? 2008 Foppa and Hossain; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Abstract Background: Excess mortality due to seasonal influenza is thought to be substantial. However, influenza may often not be recognized as cause of death. Imputation methods are therefore required to assess the public health impact of influenza. The purpose of this study was to obtain estimates of monthly excess mortality due to influenza that are based on an epidemiologically meaningful model. Methods and Results: U.S. monthly all-cause mortality, 1995 through 2005, was hierarchically modeled as Poisson variable with a mean that linearly depends both on seasonal covariates and on influenza-certified mortality. It also allowed for overdispersion to account for extra variation that is not captured by the Poisson error. The coefficient associated with influenza-certified mortality was interpreted as ratio of total influenza mortality to influenza-certified mortality.