Some Like It Hot The Influence and Implications of Climate Change on Coffee Berry Borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and Coffee Production in East Africa 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Some Like It Hot The Influence and Implications of Climate Change on Coffee Berry Borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and Coffee Production in East Africa 英文参考文献.doc

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Some Like It Hot The Influence and Implications of Climate Change on Coffee Berry Borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and Coffee Production in East Africa 英文参考文献

SomeLikeItHot:TheInfluenceandImplicationsof ClimateChangeonCoffeeBerryBorer(Hypothenemus hampei)andCoffeeProductioninEastAfrica JulianaJaramillo1,2*.,EricMuchugu2.,FernandoE.Vega3,AaronDavis4,ChristianBorgemeister2, AdenirinChabi-Olaye2 1InstituteofPlantDiseasesandPlantProtection,UniversityofHannover,Hannover,Germany,2InternationalCenterofInsectPhysiologyandEcology(icipe ),Nairobi, Kenya,3SustainablePerennialCropsLaboratory,UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgriculture,AgriculturalResearchService,Beltsville,Maryland,UnitedStatesofAmerica, 4RoyalBotanicGardens,Kew,Richmond,Surrey,UnitedKingdom Abstract Thenegativeeffectsofclimatechangearealreadyevidentformanyofthe25millioncoffeefarmersacrossthetropicsand the90billiondollar(US)coffeeindustry.Thecoffeeberryborer(Hypothenemushampei),themostimportantpestofcoffee worldwide,hasalreadybenefitedfromthetemperatureriseinEastAfrica:increaseddamagetocoffeecropsandexpansion initsdistributionrangehavebeenreported.InordertoanticipatethreatsandprioritizemanagementactionsforH.hampei wepresenthere,mapsonfuturedistributionsofH.hampeiincoffeeproducingareasofEastAfrica.UsingtheCLIMEXmodel we relate present-day insect distributions to current climate and then project the fitted climatic envelopes under future scenariosA2AandB2B(forHADCM3model).Inbothscenarios,thesituationwithH.hampeiisforecastedtoworseninthe currentCoffeaarabicaproducingareasofEthiopia,theUgandanpartoftheLakeVictoriaandMt.Elgonregions,Mt.Kenya andtheKenyansideofMt.Elgon,andmostofRwandaandBurundi.Thecalculatedhypotheticalnumberofgenerationsper yearofH.hampeiispredictedtoincreaseinallC.arabica-producingareasfromfivetoten.Theseoutcomeswillhaveserious implications for C. arabica production and livelihoods in East Africa. We suggest that the best way to adapt to arise of temperaturesincoffeeplantationscouldbeviatheintroductionofshadetreesinsungrownplantations.Theaimsofthis studyaretofillknowledgegapsexistinginthecoffeeindustry,andtodraftanoutlineforthedevelopmentofanadaptation strateg