Time series analysis of dengue fever and weather in Guangzhou, China 英文参考文献.docVIP

BMC Public Health BioMedCentral Research article Open Access Time series analysis of dengue fever and weather in Guangzhou, China Liang Lu?1, Hualiang Lin?1,2, Linwei Tian*2, Weizhong Yang3, Jimin Sun4 and Qiyong Liu*1,5 Address: 1National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, Beijing, PR China, 2Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, PR China, 3Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, PR China, 4Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, PR China and 5State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, PR China Email: Liang Lu - luliang28@; Hualiang Lin - linhualiang2002@163.com; Linwei Tian* - linweit@.hk; Weizhong Yang - ywz126@; Jimin Sun - sunjimin1981@; Qiyong Liu* - liuqiyong@ * Corresponding authors ?Equal contributors Published: 27 October 2009 Received: 4 January 2009 Accepted: 27 October 2009 BMC Public Health 2009, 9:395 doi:10.1186/1471-2458-9-395 This article is available from: /1471-2458/9/395 ? 2009 Lu et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Abstract Background: Monitoring and predicting dengue incidence facilitates early public health responses to minimize morbidity and mortality. Weather variables are potential predictors of dengue incidence. This study explored the impact of weather variability on the transmission of dengue fever in the subtropical city of Guangzhou, China. Methods: Time series Poisson regression analysis was performed using data on monthly weather variables and monthly notified cases of dengue fever in Guangzhou, China for the period of 2001- 2006. Estimates of th