气候变化下骆驼刺潜在地理分布区预测.doc

气候变化下骆驼刺潜在地理分布区预测 　　[摘要]骆驼刺Alhagi sparsifolia，豆科草本植物，是我国传统维药。预测气候变化对该物种分布范围的影响对于其保护和资源可持续利用具有重要意义。该文基于骆驼刺在中国的42个地理分布点和19个环境因子图层，采用MaxEnt模型分析了骆驼刺在我国的潜在地理分布，并基于该模型预测IPCC AR5发布的2050年及2070年的RCP2.6，RCP8.5气候情景下骆驼刺的潜在分布范围。结果表明：最冷季平均温（bio11）、年平均温（bio1）、最冷季平均降雨量（bio19）、年均降雨量（bio12）、最湿月降雨量（bio13）、最湿季平均温（bio8）、年温的变化范围（bio7）是影响骆驼刺分布的主导环境因子；在当前气候条件下，骆驼刺的适宜生境占我国总面积的7.85%，集中分布在新疆大部，甘肃北部及中部，内蒙古西部，宁夏北部。由模型预测可知：2050―2070年，RCP2.6，RCP8.5气候情境下，骆驼刺适宜生境总体呈减少的趋势 [关键词]潜在地理分布； 气候变化； MaxEnt模型； 骆驼刺 [Abstract]Specific information on geographic distribution of a species is important for its conservation. This study was conducted to determine the potential geographic distribution of Alhagi sparsifolia， which is a plant used in traditional Uighur medicine， and predict how climate change would affect its geographic range. The potential geographic distribution of A. sparsifolia under the current conditions in China was simulated with MaxEnt software based on species presence data at 42 locations and 19 climatic variables. The future distributions of A. sparsifolia were also projected in 2050 and 2070 under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 described in 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）.The result showed that mean temperature of the coldest quarter， annual mean temperature， precipitation of the coldest quarter， annual precipitation， precipitation of the wettest month， mean temperature of the wettest quarter and the temperature annual range were the seven climatic factors influencing the geographic distribution of A. sparsifolia under current climate， the suitable habitats are mainly located in the Xinjiang， in the middle and north of Gansu， in the west of Neimeng， in the north of Nei Monggol. From 2050 to 2070， the model simulations indicated that the suitable habitats of A. sparsifolia would decrease under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and scenarios of RCP8.5 on the whole. [Key words]potential geographic distribution； clima