可持续发展视角下煤炭投资项目经济评价研究.pdfVIP

摘 要 可持续发展和生态经济对各行各业的发展模式都提出了全新的、更高的要求。向来以 “高开采、低利用、高排放”著称的煤炭行业则面临更加严峻的考验。因此针对煤炭投资 项目，如何从可持续、生态、经济角度全面动态的衡量项目的可行性非常重要。本文在传 统项目经济评价(DCF)基础上，引入生态经济评价来衡量项目的生态环境价值(ENPV, Ecological Net Present Value) 。首先分析了煤炭投资项目的全寿命周期特点和划分，提出全 寿命周期的确定方法。其次由于目前研究没有针对生态折现率(Re) 的定量分析，因此本文 尝试性地利用系统动力学建立生态环境成本效益的 SD 模型，并利用 Vensim 仿真软件模拟 分析不同井型煤炭项目生态折现率不同特点和不同取值范围。最后，结合投资领域的最新 理论——实物期权思想，计算煤炭项目实物期权价值(ROV, Real Option Value) 。从而建立 全面动态的经济评价模型（ECBA, Ecological Cost Benefit Analysis ）。ECBA 模型弥补了传 统评价无法衡量煤炭项目隐含价值、容易低估项目效益缺陷，同时又满足了生态可持续发 展的要求，是比较合理和全面的经济评价模型。 关键词：煤炭项目；可持续发展；生态经济学；项目经济评价；折现率 I Abstract Sustainable development and ecological economic proposed a new and higher requirement for all kinds of field. The coal industry, generally known by high mining, low utilization, high emissions, is facing with more severe test. So it is very important that how to evaluate coal investment project from angel of sustainability, ecology and economy. Based on the traditional evaluation， DCF ，this paper combine ecological theory to evaluate the value of environment cost benefit(ECBA) . Firstly, we introduce the characteristic and duration of life-cycle of coal project, and give the method of LCA last time. Secondly, we give a model of environment cost benefit evaluation. Then we use simulation software, Vensim, to analyze the characteristics of ecological discount rate on ECBA. There are 2 simulations, the first one is to study on the discount rate suitable for coal project, and the second one is for different well-type coal project. Lastly, we build a whole model, with three value of regular NPV( net present value) ，