基于定性仿真的谈判模型研究.pdfVIP

第39卷 第 l2期 哈 尔 滨 工 业 大 学 学 报 Vol_39 No．12 2 0 0 7年l2月 JOURNAL OF HARBIN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY DeC．20o7 基于定性仿真的谈判模型研究 李海晨 一，冯玉强 (1．哈尔滨工业大学管理学院，哈尔滨150001，E—mail：li—haichen@yahoo．com．cn； 2．黑龙江大学信息管理学院，哈尔滨 150080) 摘 要：提出了一种基于定性仿真的谈判模型．谈判过程涉及到很多不确定因素，针对目前谈判支持系统中 谈判模型存在过于依赖效用函数和传统的数字仿真技术难以准确模拟谈判过程的问题，在Kuipers的定性仿 真理论基础上对谈判过程进行了定性推理，建立了谈判决策行为的状态转移模型，给出了决策变量变化的定 性描绘图．实例仿真结果表明该谈判模型能够预测系统未来行为，帮助谈判者界定系统参数变化趋势． 关键词：定性仿真；谈判支持系统；决策 、 中圈分类号：TP18 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0367—6234(2007)12—1945—04 Study on negotiation model with qualitative simulation method LI Hai．chen ，-．FENG Yu．qiang (1．School of Management，Harbin Institute of Technology，Harbin 150001，China，E—mail： li — haichen@yahoo．corn．cn；2．School of Information Management，Heilongjiang University，Harbin 150080，China) Abstract：A negotiation model with qualitative simulation method is proposed．The problem existing in present Negotiation Support System(NSS)is that the negotiation model depends on the utility function excessively．It is difficult to simulate the negotiation process correctly with traditional digital emulating technique due to many an— certain factors in negotiation process．Th erefore，the qualitative reason of negotiation process is conducted based on Kuipers qualitative simulation theory，and then the quali~tive state of decision behavior and decision varia— bles’variety chart are ven respectively．Simulation result shows that the established model can predict the fu— ture behavior of negotiation system and help negotiators realize the trend of system variables． Key words：qualitative simulation；Negotiation Support System(NSS)；decision maki