“十三五”规划碳减排目标下碳交易机制的博弈分析.pdfVIP

中国环境科学 2016,36(9) ：2857~2864 China Environmental Science “十三五”规划碳减排目标下碳交易机制的博弈分析 李 薇 1*,董艳艳 1,卢 晗 1,黄 奎 1,王振宇 2 (1.华北电力大学,区域能源系统优化教育部重点实验室,北京 102206；2.南瑞(武汉) 电气设备与工程能效测评中心,湖北 武汉 430000) 摘要：基于碳排放许可值、CO2 减排技术与成本、碳交易参数的浮动性与不确定性,构建碳交易机制的区间两阶段不确定性随机规划模型 (TISP),通过优化模型寻求系统净收益与CO 排放许可的平衡点,结果表明,当µ=40% 时,系统的净收益为最优,且系统的净收益在碳交易模式 2 下高于非交易模式下的净收益;当 µ40% 时,燃煤电厂在碳交易模式下只需采用 CS 减排技术均能达到排放许可要求,在非交易模式下则同 时采用CS 和 CA 减排技术;当µ40%时,3 种发电方式在保证 CS 减排技术的前提下,均要增加 CA 减排技术的处理.碳交易机制有利于减排 技术的合理分配及用能权、碳排放权和排污权交易市场的建立,尽快实现市场化节能碳减排目标. 关键词：碳排放权交易；区间规划；随机规划；CS 和 CA 减排技术 中图分类号：X24,X32 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2016)09-2857-08 A Game analysis on carbon trade under carbon mitigation targets during the 13th Five-Year plan period. LI Wei1* 1 1 1 2 , DONG Yan-yan , LU Han , HUANG Kui , WANG Zhen-yu (1.Key Laboratory of Regional Energy System Optimization, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China ；2.Nan Rui (Wuhan) Electrical Equipment and Engineering Center for Energy Efficiency Assessment, Wuhan 430000, China). China Environmental Science, 2016,36(9) ：2857~2864 Abstract ：Considering the floatability and uncertainties of Carbon Trade, this paper proposed a under Carbon Trade model called a two-stage inexact-stochastic programming (TISP) which was structured on the basis of Carbon emissions permits and the technologies and costs of carbon emission reduction. Then the balance of net benefit and CO2 emission permit of the system was sought through the optimization model. The paper showed the result about a significant index called µ. Firstly, when the model defined µ=40%, net system benefit achieved optimal and the benefit was higher under carbon tradi