不同政策调控下的水泥行业CO2排放模拟与分析.pdfVIP

中国环境科学 2007．27(6)：851～856 China Environmental Science 不同政策调控下的水泥行业CO2排放模拟与分析 王向华 ’。，朱晓东2聿，程 炜 ，姜 伟 ，李杨帆 (1．江苏省环境科学研究院，江苏南京210036；2．南京大学环 境学院，污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室，江苏 南京 210093) 摘要：从水泥行业C02排放的响应行为入手，采用系统动力学方法，构建水泥行业CO2排放的系统动力学仿真模型，并进行验证；识别和分析 水泥行业C02排放的主要驱动力，并设置了基准情景、产业政策调控情景、环境政策强化调控情景进行预测与分析．结果表明，3种情景下 水泥消费将在2008年达到饱和点后，转入缓慢增长时期．基准情景下CO2的直接排放量与水泥消费具有相同的规律，而产业政策情景及环境 政策强化调控情景下水泥行业CO2的直接排放量将在2008年达到最高点后，出现缓慢下降并逐渐平稳的趋势．水泥消费达到饱和点之前，3 种情景下 CO2的直接排放都呈现快速增长的态势．政策变量中水泥熟料比重对 CO2的直接排放影响最大．在产业结构调整的同时，应尽快 降低新型干法水泥的电耗水平，避免CO2的直接排放由热能消耗转移到电能消耗上． 关键词：水泥行业；CO2排放；系统动力学；情景分析；政策调控 中图分类号：X51t 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2007)06—085t一06 Simulation and scenario analysis for C02 discharge from the cement industry under different environmental policy contro1．WANG Xiang-hua ，ZHU Xiao—d0n ’ ，CHENG w JIANG wei ，LI Yang-fan (1．Jiangsu Academy of Environmental Sciences，Nanjing 210036，China；2．State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resources Reuse， School ofEnvironment，NanjingUniversity,Nanjing210093，China)．ChinaEnvironmentalScience，2007，27(6)：851-856 Abstract： In order to provide the guidance for environmental management and decision-making，the response action of C02 discharge from the cement industry was analyzed based on the analysis and predication for its decision—making variable input．Simulation model Was built for C02 discharge by system dynamics，then model verification Was performed． Three scenarios，including baseline scenario，cement industry scenario and enhancement of environmental policy scenario， were analyzed for identifying the main d6ven forces for the C02 discharge from the cement industry in China．The cement consumption will undergo the low-speed increasing after the maximum in 2008 according to the result ofthe CISD mode1． The rule of C02 dir~t discharge am ount in baseline scenario is similar to that of the cement consumption，while in the case