world wheat supply and demand situation 全球小麦供求情况.pdf

World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation February 2017 Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released February 9, 2017. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and other developments. 全球小麦供求情况 2017年2月 主要资料来源 :美国农业部供求预测 – 2017年2月9日。由于天气及其它情况的改变，一 年中资料会有所更新或变化。 1 Highlights of USDA’s 2016/17 Supply and Demand Estimates 1. 2016/17 global wheat production to reach new record of 748 MMT – Global supplies estimate to reach new record of 989 MMT; up 4% from the 2015/16 record – Wheat production for Kazakhstan estimated at 15.0 MMT, 9% greater than 2015/16 and 2% above the 5-year average – India wheat production estimated at 87.0 MMT, 5% below the 5-year average 2. Consumption forecast at 740 MMT, the fourth consecutive record high, up 4% from 2015/16 due to increased feed wheat use – Chinese feed wheat consumption to climb 52% year over year to 16.0 MMT – Feed wheat usage expected to reach 2.80 MMT in Vietnam, compared to the 5-year average of 640,000 MT – U.S. feed wheat usage to rise 48% year over year to 6.12 MMT 3. World wheat trade projected at 179 MMT, 12% above 5-year average – Kazakhstan exports to fall to 7 .5 MMT, 5% below the 5-year average – Vietnamese imports to reach a record high 5.00 MMT – US exports to reach 27.9 MMT, up 32% from 2015/16 and 5% above the 5-year average 2016/17年度美国农业部全球供求情况预测的重点 1. 2016/17年度全球小麦产量将创下新的高产记录，达到 7.48亿吨 – 预计全球供应量将创下9.89亿吨的记录，比2015/16年的记录增加4% – 哈萨克斯坦小麦产量预计达到15.0百万吨, 高于五年平均值2%，比2015/16年度增加9% – 印度小麦产量预计达到87.0百万吨，低于五年平均值5% 2. 预计消费量达到7.40亿吨，连续第四年创新高，比2015/16年度增加 4%，缘于饲料小麦消费的增加 – 中国的饲料小麦消费量预计增加至 16.0 百万吨, 比去年增加52% – 越南饲料小麦消费量预计达到2.80百万吨，其五年平均消费量为640,000吨 – 美国饲料小麦消费量预计比上一年增加 48% ，达到 6.12 百万吨 3. 全球小麦贸易量预计 1.79 亿吨, 高于5年