中瑞金融经济复苏VS产能过剩 铝价震荡区间抬升（China and Switzerland finance economic recovery VS capacity surplus aluminum price oscillation range uplift）.docVIP

中瑞金融经济复苏VS产能过剩 铝价震荡区间抬升（China and Switzerland finance economic recovery VS capacity surplus aluminum price oscillation range uplift） China and Switzerland finance: economic recovery VS capacity surplus aluminum price oscillation range uplift 1. Review of 2009 In 2009, driven by the gradual recovery of the global economy, domestic and foreign aluminum prices bottomed out and showed a volatile upward trend. In the first half of the year, domestic and foreign aluminum factories cut production, the state and local storage, cost factors and other support, China supported aluminum price bottom rebound; After the third quarter, demand for aluminium was expected to rise as the economy recovered and the aluminium industry recovered, and the aluminium industry emerged from a clear rally. By the end of December, shanghai-aluminium had risen from 11,000yuan at the end of December 2008 to a line of 16,500 yuan, with lmemarch rising to $2,250 from $1,500 at the end of December 2008, both at around 50%. Aluminium prices have risen significantly less than copper in 2009, thanks to overcapacity and a huge inventory of aluminium. Ii. Analysis of fundamental factors: (1) macro factor analysis Chinas economy is recovering 09, in tackling the international financial crisis, our country take a massive fiscal stimulus policy and loose monetary policy, successfully reversed rapid economic decline since 08 in the fourth quarter, GDP growth in the third quarter before the quarter by quarter, quarterly growth of 6.1%, 7.9% and 8.9% respectively, the economy achieve steady recovery. From Chinas macro economic sentiment index and various leading indicators, Chinas economy is now recovering. The index of macroeconomic indicators has returned to its historical average, while the consensus index and lagging index have gradually recovered. The PMI, which recovered gradually after reaching its low point late last year, has steadily gained more than 50 points, indicating a good rebound in Chinas econ