狭水道追鱼（Chasing fish）.doc

狭水道追鱼（Chasing fish） Safety system engineer; Extenics; Matter - element model; Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process; Fuzzy mathematical comprehensive assessment Maritime transport is a high-risk industry, navigation is safer, the ocean cleaner is the goal that the entire maritime industry is eager for and is striving for. It is also the need for ecological balance and sustainable human development. But, with the rapid development of modern world trade and navigation technology, vessels toward large-scale, quick running, specialty, automation development, ship manning to the development of many nationalities, local transportation is becoming more and more busy, especially in the narrow channel control security, makes bad and ship motion performance of navigation environment is also reduced. Although modern navigation equipment reliability and navigation technology is more and more high, in the narrow waterway or frequent maritime, make people life and property on board the ship, the environment constitute the great harm. How to improve the safe level of the control of narrow channel has always been the question of thinking in the maritime industry. However, the safety theory of narrow waterway manipulation is not fully established. In view of the current situation, this paper evaluates the operation safety of the narrow channel from the perspective of safety evaluation. Safety evaluation is an important component of safety system engineering. It is an important symbol of the development and improvement of safety science. Using mathematical method and computing technology research relationship between the number of failures and accidents and its influencing factors, reveal the meantime the number of change and the law of safety management and management science is a great progress, this is also the development of Marine safety management of a big step forward. The paper firstly analyzes and summarizes several quantitative evaluation methods from the perspective of security