面向社区的全过程风险管理模型的理论和应用-自然灾害学报.PDF

15 1 Vo.l 15, No. 1 2006 2 JOURNAL OF NATURAL D ISASTERS Feb. , 2006 : 1004-4574( 2006) 01- 0023- 06 毛小苓, 倪晋仁, 张菲菲, 张 歆 ( , 100 71) : , , / ( COPRM S) 0 COPRMS, : ; ; ; COPRMS : X32. 022 : A Theory and application of COPRM Smodel for risk managem ent MAO X iao-ling, N I Jin-ren, ZHANG Fe-i fe,i ZHANG X in ( Departm ent ofEnvironm ental Engineering, Peking U niversity; the Key Lab ofW ater and Sedmi ent Sciences, M inistry of Education, Beij ing 100 71, China) Abstract: There aremany serious potential hazards in China today but the risk analysis andmanagement still linger on very low level. Based on the comparative analysis of the existing models, a concept model of commun ity-based overall process risk management system( COPRM S) is presented in this paper. The new model is an integrated risk managementmodel combining wt o opposite approaches of / from top to bottom0 and / from bottom to top0 w hich em- phasizes the policy support from the government in higher level and the public participation in commun ities during the whole process of risk managem ent. The theories and applications of COPRM S model are discussed in th is pa- per. K ey words: commun ity; risk assessment; risk managem ent; COPRM S model [ 1] , , , , , [ 2] , [ 3] , ( ISDR), , , , - - , , , , [ 4- ] , , ( APELL, EPC, FEMA, NDCDEP, UN- DRO, SMUG ), , / 0 ( community- based over