台勒地区大熊猫种群生存力分析-南京林业大学学报.PDF

第 23 卷第 5 期 南京 林业大 学学报 Vo l. 23 No. 5 1999 年 9 月 Joumal of Nanjing Forestry University Sep. 1999 ;台勒地区大熊猫种群生存力分析 郭建胡锦矗 (四川师范学院珍稀动植物研究所 南充 637002) 摘要 采用种群生存力分析(PVA) 软件一一派涡软件(vo时ex v6. 坷，用 4 种不同的初始参数 模拟了冶勒地区大熊猫在 100a 内的变动趋势。模拟结果显示:在不考虑灾变和近亲抑制的 理想状态下，种群数量有一个缓慢增长; 当加入很小的近亲繁殖参数时，种群在第 90 年绝灭， 而加入1. 76% 的灾变机率时，种群在第 60 年绝灭。 关键词 大熊猫;旋涡模型;种群生存力分析;种群绝灭;保护生物学 中图分类号 Q958 文献标识码 A 文章编号 100(}2006( 1999) 0乡0027-04 The Population Viability Analysis of Giant Panda in Yele Area Guo Jian Hu Jinchu ( Institute of Rare Animals Plants Sichuan Teachers College Nanchong 637002) Abstract Small populations are subject to large fluctuations arising from random processes at a variety of levels (genetic , demogeaphic , environmental and catastrophic) , and such variation can place a population at high risk of extinction. Because giant panda is a long- term studied animal , many parameters which PVA computer simulation model need can be estimated. We used Vortexωmputer model made by R. Lacy (vortex 6. 3) with four kinds of di卡 ferent parameters to project the likely rate of current Yele panda population. The results show that the number of the panda will slowly increase with no inbreeding depression and no catastrophe , however when we run the computer with a very small inbreeding rate or 1. 76% probability of catastrophe the population will be extinct in ninety years and sÏxty years respectively. Key words Giant panda; Vortex model; Population viability analysis; Extinction; Conservation biology 由于人类活动的影响，许多过去曾广泛分布、数量较多并占有较大而连续的栖息地的动物种群，如 今缩小为一个或多个小的、相互隔离的小种群。这些孤立小种群的生存不仅继续