基于海德平衡理论的老年人出行态度转变分析 - 中国管理科学.pdf

第41卷 第6期 北 京 工 业 大 学 学 报 Vol.41 No.6 2015年 6月 JOURNAL OF BEIJING UNIVERSITY OFTECHNOLOGY Jun. 2015 基于海德平衡理论的老年人出行态度转变分析 韩 艳,关宏志,李丹洋 (北京工业大学 北京市交通工程重点实验室,北京 100124) 摘 要:基于海德平衡理论,探讨了老年人公交出行行为及态度改变的机理. 基于老年人出行行为特性机理分析, 从平衡理论的视角,构建老年人公交出行的“P-O-X”三角平衡模型,研究老年人为获得良好的公交出行体验,在态 度关系链上选择比较容易改变的关系加以转换的平衡状态调整机理. 以北京市南磨房周边老年人为研究对象,开 展老年人公交出行行为和意愿调查,并建立老年人错峰出行意愿模型,量化分析非平衡状态与平衡状态转换过程. 结果表明:69%的老年人愿意通过调整公共交通出发时刻,将不平衡状态转化成平衡状态,可为老年人出行机动性 改善提供数据支持. 关键词:老年人;海德平衡理论;公共交通;错峰出行;平衡状态 中图分类号:U491.1 文献标志码:A 文章编号:0254-0037(2015)06-0906-06 doi:10.11936/ bjutxb2014060049 Analysis of Trip Attitude Adjustment of Public Transit of the Elderly Based on Heiders Balance Theory HAN Yan,GUAN Hong-zhi,LI Dan-yang (Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China) Abstract:Thetravelbehaviorcharacteristicswithpublictransitandthemechanismof attitudeadjustment for the elderly were discussed based on the Heiders balance theory. According to the analysis of the elderlys travel behavior characteristics, a P-O-X triangular balance model was established from the viewpoint of balance theory to discuss the attitude adjustment mechanism in which the elderly would like to choose the attitude that was relatively easy to adjust among the attitude relationship chain to obtain better trip experience. A questionnaire of the elderlys travel behavior and attitude towards public transit was carried out and the elderlys public transit staggered shifts willingness model was formulated to quantitatively analyze the transition processbetween the imbalance and balance states. Results show that 69% of the elderly are likely to