浅析基于房地产景气指数的我国房地产贷款风险控制研究.docVIP

　　浅析基于房地产景气指数的我国房地产贷款风险控制研究 --摘 要 随着我国国民经济的快速发展与国民收入水平的快速升高，城市化进程的推进，对房地产的需求激增促进了中国房地产业近年来飞速发展，强劲拉动GDP增长，成为国民经济的支柱产业之一。房地产业是典型的资金密集型行业，其发展依赖于银行信贷支持，使商业银行的经营风险极度集中。 本文通过综合分析，表明商业银行参与房地产开发-建设-销售的全过程，主要发放土地储备贷款、房地产开发贷款及个人住房贷款；有产业链传导和由消费路径、投资路径组成的房价传导两种传导机制；房地产景气指数与房地产信贷风险呈负相关关系；基于国房景气指数分析房地产经济运行状况并进行预测分析，提议我国商业银行要健全以房地产景气指数为依据的房地产贷款风险预警体系，强化贷前贷后对开发商、抵押物、个人住房贷款的借款人的风险控制管理，完善贷后风险补偿措施，合理扩展房地产信贷规模，有效的防范控制商业银行房地产贷款风险。 关键词：房地产景气指数；房地产信贷风险；房贷风险控制 Abstract Along ent of Chinas national economy and national ine level increases rapidly, urbanization advancement, the real estate surge in demand for the rapid development of Chinas real estate industry in recent years, strong GDP groy industries. The real estate industry is the capital of intensive; its development relies on bank credit support to mercial banks to spread the business risk of extreme. Through prehensive analysis, shoercial banks involved in real estate development - building - selling the entire process, mainly the distribution of land reserve loans, real estate development loans and individual housing loans; a chain conduction and by the consumption path, the investment ponent of the price path conduction of techanisms; real estate and real estate climate index shoic situation and forecasting analysis, proposed to improve Chinas mercial banks to the real estate climate index real estate loan risk early , strengthening the credit before the credit after the developer, collateral, individual housing loan borroanagement, improve credit risk pensation measures after the reasonable expansion of the scale of real estate credit, effective prevention and control of mercial banks in room real estate loan risk. Keyate index；Real estate credit；Real estate credit risk 目 录 一、绪 论. 1 （一）研究背景与目的 1 （二）国内外研究现状 1 （三）论文结构及研究方法 3 二、房地产景气指数与银行房地产贷款风险的关系. 3 （一）房地产景气指数的涵义 3 （二）银行房地产贷款风险的形成与传导机制 4 （三）景气指数与房贷风险的相关性分析 9 三、房地产经济现状与贷款风险计量. 12 （一）房地产经济现状分析 12 （二）房地产贷款风险计量 17 四、房地产贷款风险控制对策建议. 18 （一）健全房地产贷款风险预警体系 18 （二）严格房地产贷款审批制度 19 （三）强化房地产贷款检