基于气候适宜度指数的山东省冬小麦产量动态预报-中国农学通报.PDFVIP

中国农学通报 2012,28(12):291-295 Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 基于气候适宜度指数的山东省冬小麦产量动态预报 李曼华，薛晓萍，李鸿怡 （山东省气候中心，济南250031 ） 摘 要：利用山东省主产区冬小麦产量资料、生育期内的温度、降水量、日照时数资料，结合冬小麦生理特 性，分别构建了冬小麦温度、降水及日照适宜度模型，利用气候适宜度与冬小麦产量的关系，建立基于气 候适宜度的冬小麦产量动态预报模型。通过对2008—2010 年冬小麦产量进行动态预报，结果表明：3 月 31 日、4 月30 日和5 月31 日预报的小麦产量丰歉趋势的预报平均正确率均为100% ，单产预报平均准确 率分别为95.1%、95.1%和95.4% ，预报准确率较高，能够满足业务服务的需要。 关键词：冬小麦；气候适宜度；产量动态预报 中图分类号：S165+27 文献标志码：A 论文编号：2012-0337 DynamicPredictionMethodforWheatYieldBasedon ClimaticSuitabilityIndexinShandongProvince Li Manhua, Xue Xiaoping, Li Hongyi (ShandongProvincialClimateCenter, Jinan 250031) Abstract: By using the data of wheat yield , temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration from individual main producing region, on the basis of physiological characteristics of wheat，the suitability models about temperature, precipitation and sunshine of wheat were constructed. A dynamical prediction model of wheat yield was created based on the relation between climatic suitability and wheat yield. Wheat yield was predicted dynamically with the model from 2008 to 2010, the results indicated that all the average accuracy of the bumper or poor harvest trend for wheat yield were 100% and the average accuracy of the actual yield was 95.1% , 95.1% and 95.4% for March 31th, April 30th and May 31th respectively. The dynamic prediction model has high prediction accuracy and can satisfy the needs of operational services. Keywords:wheat; climatic suitability; dynamic prediction of yield 0 引言 经不能满足防灾减灾、粮食安全预警和农业生产者的