combined generalized hubbert-bass model approach to include disruptions when predicting future oil production结合广义hubbert-bass模型方法包括当预测未来石油生产中断.pdfVIP

Natural Resources, 2010, 1, 28-33 doi:10.4236/nr.2010.11004 Published Online September 2010 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/nr) Combined Generalized Hubbert-Bass Model Approach to Include Disruptions When Predicting Future Oil Production Steve H. Mohr, Geoffrey M. Evans School of Engineering, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia. Email: Steve.Mohr@.au Received August 30th, 2010; revised September 20th, 2010; accepted September 25th, 2010. ABSTRACT In a previous study [1] the authors had developed a methodology for predicting global oil production. Briefly , the model accounted for disruptions in production by utilising a series of Hubbert curves in combination with a polynomial smoothing function. Whilst the model was able to produce predictions for future oil production, the methodology was complex in its implementation and not easily applied to future disruptions. In this study a Generalized Bass model ap- proach is incorporated with the Hubbert linearization techni que that overcomes these limitations and is consistent with our previous predictions. Keywords : Generalized Bass Model, Hubbert Curve, Oil Production 1. Introduction ing Hubbert linearization techniques to historical produc- tion data. The disadvantage with the Hubbert approach, It has been reported that world oil production will peak however, is that while it is possible to include disruptions between 1996 and 2048 [2-16]. Typically, the modelling the methodology for doing so is very tedious [1]. analysis is based on the Hubbert curve, which is defined A recent alternative to the