bootstrap and order statistics for quantifying thermal-hydraulic code uncertainties in the estimation of safety margins引导和秩序统计量化热工安全代码估计的不确定性的利润率.pdfVIP

Hindawi Publishing Corporation Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations Volume 2008, Article ID 340164, 9 pages doi:10.1155/2008/340164 Research Article Bootstrap and Order Statistics for Quantifying Thermal-Hydraulic Code Uncertainties in the Estimation of Safety Margins Enrico Zio and Francesco Di Maio Department of Nuclear Engineering, Polytechnic of Milan, Via Ponzio 34/3, 20133 Milano, Italy Correspondence should be addressed to Enrico Zio, enrico.zio@polimi.it Received 30 April 2007; Revised 8 December 2007; Accepted 21 December 2007 Recommended by Cesare Frepoli In the present work, the uncertainties affecting the safety margins estimated from thermal-hydraulic code calculations are cap- tured quantitatively by resorting to the order statistics and the bootstrap technique. The proposed framework of analysis is applied to the estimation of the safety margin, with its confidence interval, of the maximum fuel cladding temperature reached during a complete group distribution blockage scenario in a RBMK-1500 nuclear reactor. Copyright © 2008 E. Zio and F. Di Maio. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. 1. INTRODUCTION revision in probabilistic terms of the concept of safety mar- gins [ 1, 2] and repeated model runs for the associated sensi- The traditional safety assessment of nuclear power plants tivity and uncertainty analyses. Independently of the type of aims at verifying that a number of acceptance criteria are sat- nuclear power plant, these latter p