stability analysis of a delayed sir epidemic model with stage structure and nonlinear incidence延迟先生流行病模型的稳定性分析具有阶段结构和非线性发生率.pdf

Hindawi Publishing Corporation Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society Volume 2009, Article ID 979217, 17 pages doi:10.1155/2009/979217 Research Article Stability Analysis of a Delayed SIR Epidemic Model with Stage Structure and Nonlinear Incidence Xiaohong Tian and Rui Xu Institute of Applied Mathematics, Shijiazhuang Mechanical Engineering College, Shijiazhuang 050003, China Correspondence should be addressed to Rui Xu, rxu88@ Received 28 April 2009; Accepted 21 August 2009 Recommended by Antonia Vecchio We investigate the stability of an SIR epidemic model with stage structure and time delay. By analyzing the eigenvalues of the corresponding characteristic equation, the local stability of each feasible equilibrium of the model is established. By using comparison arguments, it is proved when the basic reproduction number is less than unity, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, sufficient conditions are derived for the global stability of an endemic equilibrium of the model. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the theoretical results. Copyright q 2009 X. Tian and R. Xu. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. 1. Introduction Let St denote the number of members of a population susceptible to a disease, I t the number of infective members, and Rt the number of members who have been removed from the possibility of infection through full immunity, a standard SIR compartmental model is of the form 1 ˙