comparative analysis of old-age mortality estimations in africa比较分析养老死亡率估计在非洲.pdfVIP

Comparative Analysis of Old-Age Mortality Estimations in Africa 1,2 3 1 Eran Bendavid *, Benjamin Seligman , Jessica Kubo 1 Division of General Internal Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America, 2 Center for Health Policy and the Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America, 3 School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America Abstract Background: Survival to old ages is increasing in many African countries. While demographic tools for estimating mortality up to age 60 have improved greatly, mortality patterns above age 60 rely on models based on little or no demographic data. These estimates are important for social planning and demographic projections. We provide direct estimations of older-age mortality using survey data. Methods: Since 2005, nationally representative household surveys in ten sub-Saharan countries record counts of living and ˆ recently deceased household members: Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Namibia, Nigeria, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. After accounting for age heaping using multiple imputation, we use this information to estimate probability of death in 5-year intervals ( q ). We then compare our q estimates to those provided by the World Health 5 x 5 x Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) to estimate the differences in mortality estimates, especially among individuals older than 60 years old. Findings: We obtained information on 505,827 individuals (18.4% over age 60, 1.