early outbreak of 2009 influenza a (h1n1) in mexico prior to identification of ph1n1 virus早期2009年流感爆发甲型h1n1流感在墨西哥前ph1n1病毒的识别.pdfVIP

Early Outbreak of 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico Prior to Identification of pH1N1 Virus 1,2 3 4,5 6,7 3 Ying-Hen Hsieh *, Stefan Ma , Jorge X. Velasco Hernandez , Vernon J. Lee , Wei Yen Lim 1 Department of Public Health, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan, 2 Center for Infectious Disease Education and Research, China Medical University, Taichung, ´ ´ Taiwan, 3 Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore, 4 Programa de Matematicas Aplicadas y Computacion, ´ ´ ´ Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo, Mexico City DF, Mexico, 5 Departamento de Biociencias e Ingenierıa, Interdisciplinary Center for Research and Studies on Environment ´ and Development-National Polytechnic Institute, Mexico City DF, Mexico, 6 Headquarters Medical Corps, Singapore Armed Forces, Singapore, Singapore, 7 Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore Abstract Background: In the aftermath of the global spread of 2009 influenza A (pH1N1) virus, still very little is known of the early stages of the outbreak in Mexico during the early months of the year, before the virus was identified. Methodology/Main Findings: We fit a simple mathematical model, the Richards model, to the number of excess labora