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health development versus medical relief not a turf battle卫生发展与医疗救助不是一个地盘的战斗
Correspondence
Air Travel and the Spread of Infl uenza:
Important Caveats
Cécile Viboud, Mark A. Miller, Bryan T. Grenfell, Ottar
N. Bjørnstad, Lone Simonsen
While air travel contributes to the spread of infl uenza
epidemics, the magnitude of impact is not clear compared to
other factors—a crucial issue when considering a fl ight ban in
the context of pandemic planning. Recent modeling efforts
simulating the spread of pandemic infl uenza have concluded
that such an intervention would matter little relative to
other interventions [1–3]. But this assessment has now been
challenged by an observational study of infl uenza in the
winter following the post-9/11/2001 depression in air traffi c.
Brownstein and colleagues’ study published in the September
issue of PLoS Medicine [4] correlates variations in air traffi c doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0030503.g001
volume with patterns of timing and spread in infl uenza
Figure 1. Patterns of Timing (A) and Spread (B) of 30 Infl uenza
epidemics, based on United States mortality data from nine Epidemics in the US, Together with Trends in Air Travel Statistics
epidemic seasons between 1996 and 2005. While we fi nd the Infl uenza patterns are based on weekly national vital statistics from
study interesting, we have identifi ed several important caveats 1972 to 2002 [5]. Air travel statistics represent the annual number of
and question the robustness of the conclusions. domestic and international passengers on US air carriers (scheduled
fl ights, secondary y-axis) [7]. (A) Time series of timing of national peaks
The core of this study’s results lies in the observation that of infl uenza mortality. The 2001–2002 epidemic following 9/11 peaked
the 2001–2002 i
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