revisiting the basic reproductive number for malaria and its implications for malaria control回顾的基本生育数量对疟疾控制疟疾及其影响.pdfVIP

PLoS BIOLOGY Revisiting the Basic Reproductive Number for Malaria and Its Implications for Malaria Control 1* 1 2,3 2,4 David L. Smith , F. Ellis McKenzie , Robert W. Snow , Simon I. Hay 1 Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America, 2 Malaria Public Health and Epidemiology Group, Centre for Geographic Medicine, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya, 3 Centre for Tropical Medicine, John Radcliffe Hospital, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, 4 Spatial Epidemiology and Ecology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom The prospects for the success of malaria control depend, in part, on the basic reproductive number for malaria, R . 0 Here, we estimate R0 in a novel way for 121 African populations, and thereby increase the number of R0 estimates for malaria by an order of magnitude. The estimates range from around one to more than 3,000. We also consider malaria transmission and control in finite human populations, of size H. We show that classic formulas approximate the expected number of mosquitoes that could trace infection back to one mosquito after one parasite generation, Z0(H), but they overestimate the expected number of infected humans per infected human, R0(H). Heterogeneous biting increases R and, as we show, Z (H), but we also show that it sometimes reduces R (H); those who are bitten most both 0 0