situational awareness of influenza activity based on multiple streams of surveillance data using multivariate dynamic linear model态势感知的流感活动基于监测数据的多个流使用多元动态线性模型.pdfVIP

Situational Awareness of Influenza Activity Based on Multiple Streams of Surveillance Data Using Multivariate Dynamic Linear Model Eric H. Y. Lau*, Calvin K. Y. Cheng, Dennis K. M. Ip, Benjamin J. Cowling Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China Abstract Background: Multiple sources of influenza surveillance data are becoming more available; however integration of these data streams for situational awareness of influenza activity is less explored. Methods and Results: We applied multivariate time-series methods to sentinel outpatient and school absenteeism surveillance data in Hong Kong during 2004–2009. School absenteeism data and outpatient surveillance data experienced interruptions due to school holidays and changes in public health guidelines during the pandemic, including school closures and the establishment of special designated flu clinics, which in turn provided ‘drop-in’ fever counts surveillance data. A multivariate dynamic linear model was used to monitor influenza activity throughout epidemics based on all available data. The inferred level followed influenza activity closely at different times, while the inferred trend was less competent with low influenza activity. Correlations between inferred level and trend from the multivariate model and reference influenza activity, measured by the product of weekly laboratory influenza detection rates and weekly general practitioner influenza-like illness consultation rates, were calculated and compared with those from univariate models. Over the whole study period, there was a significantly higher correlation (r = 0.82, p#0.02) for the inferred trend based on the multivariate model compared to other univariate models,