publication growth in biological sub-fields patterns, predictability and sustainability出版生物子字段的增长模式、可预测性和可持续性.pdfVIP

Sustainability 2012, 4, 3234-3247; doi:10.3390/su4123234 OPEN ACCESS sustainability ISSN 2071-1050 /journal/sustainability Article Publication Growth in Biological Sub-Fields: Patterns, Predictability and Sustainability Marco Pautasso 1,2 1 Centre for Functional and Evolutionary Ecology (CEFE), CNRS, 34293 Montpellier, France; E-Mail: marco.pautasso@rs.fr; Tel.: +33-46-761-33-15 2 Centre for Biodiversity Synthesis and Analysis (CESAB), FRB, 13857 Aix-en-Provence, France Received: 12 June 2012; in revised form: 5 November 2012 / Accepted: 19 November 2012 / Published: 23 November 2012 Abstract: Biologists are producing ever-increasing quantities of papers. The question arises of whether current rates of increase in scientific outputs are sustainable in the long term. I studied this issue using publication data from the Web of Science (1991–2010) for 18 biological sub-fields. In the majority of cases, an exponential regression explains more variation than a linear one in the number of papers published each year as a function of publication year. Exponential growth in publication numbers is clearly not sustainable. About 75% of the variation in publication growth among biological sub-fields over the two studied decades can be predicted by publication data from the first six years. Currently trendy fields such as structural biology, neuroscience and biomaterials cannot be expected to carry on growing at the current pace, because in a few