原创力文档riding the wave reconciling the roles of disease and climate change in amphibian declines骑波协调两栖动物疾病和气候变化的作用下降.pdfVIP
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riding the wave reconciling the roles of disease and climate change in amphibian declines骑波协调两栖动物疾病和气候变化的作用下降
PLoS BIOLOGY
Riding the Wave: Reconciling the Roles
of Disease and Climate Change in
Amphibian Declines
1* 2 3 1
Karen R. Lips , Jay Diffendorfer , Joseph R. Mendelson III , Michael W. Sears
1 Department of Zoology, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, Illinois, United States of America, 2 Illinois Natural History Survey, Champaign, Illinois, United States of
America, 3 Zoo Atlanta, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
We review the evidence for the role of climate change in triggering disease outbreaks of chytridiomycosis, an emerging
infectious disease of amphibians. Both climatic anomalies and disease-related extirpations are recent phenomena, and
effects of both are especially noticeable at high elevations in tropical areas, making it difficult to determine whether
they are operating separately or synergistically. We compiled reports of amphibian declines from Lower Central America
and Andean South America to create maps and statistical models to test our hypothesis of spatiotemporal spread of the
pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and to update the elevational patterns of decline in frogs belonging to
the genus Atelopus. We evaluated claims of climate change influencing the spread of Bd by including error into
estimates of the relationship between air temperature and last year observed. Available data support the hypothesis of
multiple introductions of this invasive pathogen into South America and subsequent spread along the primary Andean
cordilleras. Additional analyses found no evidence to support the hypothesis that climate change has been driving
outbreaks of amphibian chytridiomycosis, as has been posited in the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis. Future
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